If I had bought March 20th, I would be inclined to sell soon. I like to see close to a 50% drop in the SPX before I want to buy hand over fist.
The gain might just be a dead cat bounce.
If we enter a secular bear market, those can last 10-20 years.
It's impossible to value most stocks in this environment. The thinking I have read is 10-20 companies in the SP500 will declare bankruptcy.
Things that concern me:
1)The world will have massive debt after this is over, nations, states, many companies, individuals.
2) There will likely be permanent changes in society. Work from home will become much more common, tele-health also. Less driving, less gas, less cars, will cruise ships ever be as popular as last year? Will people want to work 50-60 hours a week to get more "stuff" or will values change? Will rural real estate become more popular while living in crowded cities less popular?
3) I have seen guesses of 30-40% increase in health care costs next year. Assuming private health care is still the norm, it's much more likely some sort of version of universal medicare
4) taxes are likely to increase at some point when we do "recover" economically.
5) We could enter a depression.
I tend to either do swing trades in micro cap stocks, or be bets after a huge move like we had in 2009. Other than those two situations, I tend to not do well if I try too hard to make money. I haven't been trading / investing in several years, but i used to be very active.
I was thinking it would be a good idea to borrow money using a second mortgage or heloc. Assuming you have equity in a house, you can get $100K + loan for 15 years for 2.5%, that has got to be a low in mortgage rates. Not sure what to do with the cash, gold interest me but it's always been a tricky investment.
What does anyone think about locking in a 15 year loan home loan for 2.5% ??
